Greetings! Quite a bit of news and rumors are circulating in regards to the big three console makers. Speculation is always a good way to develop false hope, but Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo are bringing more information to the public. It’s painting a very interesting and unpredictable future for consoles along with other aspects of the video game industry. All three companies have plenty of merit and it seems like they’re going to have their own evolution for each brand. Check out my thoughts below.
Sony and PlayStation PlayStation Needs a More Profitable Model for AAA Games The PS5 has a plethora of successful AAA games, ranging from Marvel’s Spider-Man, God of War, Gran Turismo, and many more. Yet their business model doesn’t appear to be profitable. How on Earth does that happen? Sony must be spending money on AAA games that exceeds any possible form of profitability. Like many news outlets and critics say, the AAA model isn’t sustainable. That doesn’t mean AAA games are disappearing from the market. Sony and other developers just need to rethink their strategy. For example, nearly every developer in the industry laid off a ton of employees. It’s sad, but true. They will find other methods to close the monetary gap, such as making games shorter and more linear. Also, Sony will likely churn out fewer AAA titles each year. Get Ready for the Live Service Smorgasbord Yes, Sony is jumping on the live service bandwagon and it’s here to stay. Helldivers II is proving to be very successful, so far. I’m willing to bet live service games will encompass anywhere between one third to half of their annual market. That’s not a great situation for a single player gamer, like me, but PlayStation will continue to have other games as well. Why are developers obsessed with live service games? Technically, popular live games can reap large amounts of profit for many years. Look at Fortnite and Destiny. Audiences are tired of live service games, so Sony needs to be creative with this gamble. They Believe Consumers Will Throw Endless Money at the PlayStation I’m pretty sure Sony will make some foolish mistakes. Sony doesn’t think anyone can overcome them in the console wars. That’s probably true, but it doesn’t mean Sony is invincible. Unfortunately, Sony might hike up prices to unreasonable extents. For example, some of their AAA games might be $100. I’m talking about the base game without extra goodies. They seem to believe anyone will buy their games, regardless of the price. I’m sure there’s a monetary cap for many people. In fact, gaming is already experiencing a decline in players because it’s an expensive hobby. Alternatively, they might divide AAA games into multiple $70 releases. The Final Fantasy VII remake is already a good example. Sony is Supporting Physical Media Despite a major decline in physical sales, Sony appears to be supporting physical media at the moment. Nearly every first party PlayStation game has a physical release. Many smaller third party games also have a physical option. I don’t believe this business model will change any time soon. The next PlayStation console will probably include a disc drive. Granted, the next console might not have the disc drive included in the package. We might need to purchase the disc drive separately and attach it. Why would Sony adapt such a weird option? Because it’s another item you must buy. Remember, Sony is the console maker who’s milking your money more than anyone else. First Party Games Could Migrate to Other Platforms There’s a lot of controversy about Microsoft bringing their first party games to rival platforms. Guess what? Sony will adapt the same idea. I definitely think we’re going to see most first party PlayStation games on PC. Quite of a few of them will probably debut day one on PC and Steam Deck. The longest wait time for the PC will probably be one year. Also, they will probably bring smaller titles to the next Nintendo console. I’m sure the Switch successor will be pretty powerful, so this could be a good way to bring in a bigger audience and profits. They’ll deny first party games from the next Xbox console because it’s a more significant rival, but everything else is fair game. Microsoft and Xbox Just Throw Stuff at the Wall and See What Sticks Microsoft needs to figure out how to build their audience and maintain a successful business model. That means we’re going to see all kinds of strategies. Some will work out very well and other ideas might fall flat. For example, they’re already bringing certain types of first party games to the PlayStation and Nintendo Switch. It makes sense for smaller titles and live service games. I imagine we’ll see a bigger emphasis on cloud gaming and possibly a handheld version of the Xbox. More accurately, it will probably be a handheld PC like the Steam Deck. I guess we’ll see what happens. The Xbox Needs to Reach a Broader Audience According to the toxic PlayStation fandom, Microsoft is bringing some of their first party games to other consoles and now the console wars are done. The truth is, Microsoft already knows they can’t beat the PlayStation. So, they’re adapting a different strategy. They just need to have a large, relevant player count. Prepare for different kinds of releases, such as day one releases on Game Pass, AAA console exclusives, Xbox apps on your tv screen for cloud gaming, select cross-platform releases, a mixture of digital and physical media, etc. You can even subscribe to Ubisoft+ on the Xbox. Honestly, I think it’s an intelligent strategy. The next console generation might be a lot more profitable. Game Pass Remains Their Flagship Project It doesn’t look like the Game Pass craze is going away. That’s good because I really enjoy Game Pass. You can’t beat the price for so many games, even when the cost goes up for subscriptions. PlayStation+ might have more subscribers because the PS5 audience is vastly bigger, but Game Pass is definitely the more popular service. It’s also one of the few components that keeps players in the Xbox ecosystem. I doubt anyone bought the Xbox Series X exclusively to play cross-platform games and rare exclusive releases. I’m sure Microsoft will expand Game Pass with the entire Activision Blizzard library. We’ll probably see a huge change in 2025. Microsoft Will Continue to Make Consoles Based on recent news, it sounds like Microsoft will continue to make consoles next generation. That’s good because it maintains a certain amount of competition. It’s hard to say if the next Xbox will be digital only. Despite leaks, we don’t know what Microsoft is planning. They won’t exclude physical collector’s entirely. The next console might include a disc drive. Alternatively, they might find a way to allow gamers to migrate the data from their physical games to the digital ecosystem. That sounds very complex, but Microsoft might have the ability to make it happen. Digital Media Will Have a Bigger Emphasis It seems like Microsoft will have a bigger focus on digital games than the other console makers. Game Pass completely eliminated the need for physical media on the Xbox. All first party games come to Game Pass on day one, which will include Activision Blizzard and Bethesda shortly. Many third party games come day one to Game Pass as well. Along the way, many other games drop on Game Pass, including long forgotten titles, indie games, releases that are less than a year old, etc. They also made it perfectly clear that cloud gaming is an important part of the future, even though current technology isn’t great for games via streaming. Fewer retailers are selling physical media and many developers are only releasing their disc games on PlayStation and Switch. So, digital media is the future, whether we like it or not. Nintendo and the Switch Successor The Switch’s Successor is Coming Soon Supposedly, the successor to the Nintendo Switch is coming in 2025. That makes sense because the Switch is much older than the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X. It also has very outdated hardware. So, a new console seems like the most logical business choice. The Switch is insanely popular, which means the next console will probably be similar except with upgraded hardware and features. At one point, I thought the Nintendo Switch would become the highest selling console of all time, but that’s probably not going to happen now. Will Nintendo’s new console be cheaper or more expensive? It’s hard to say, but Nintendo will guarantee a profit one way or another. Nintendo Will Copy Many Elements from the Switch The Switch was truly lightening in a bottle. It would be foolish if Nintendo went in a completely different direction with the new console. The executives at Nintendo have plenty of business savvy, so they will probably retain many popular elements from the Switch. I assume the next console will be a handheld device or a hybrid. They’ll continue making games from popular franchises, such as Super Mario Bros., The Legend of Zelda, Pokémon, etc. We’ll probably see special edition consoles, continual development for the Nintendo Online subscription, cute little carry bags, and a zillion accessories. Everything that made the Switch popular will apply to the next console. You can rest at ease. They Will Find a Way to Surprise Us Somehow, the next console will have to establish its own identity. Each generation has some surprises. The Switch, DS, and Wii had interesting elements that were quite successful. Other consoles flatlined, such as the Wii U. Nintendo will find a way to surprise consumers. Perhaps, they’ll move away from cartridges and commit to digital releases only. Maybe the next console will be backwards compatible with Switch games. The next console might be a unique hybrid, such as a home console like the PS5 or Xbox Series X with a detachable handheld device. Anything is possible with Nintendo. The Upcoming Nintendo Console Will Dominate the Market The Switch is a real juggernaut. Everybody raves about the PlayStation, but it’s hard to beat Nintendo in the long run. Ultimately, Nintendo knows how to hook an audience and keep their attention through an entire console generation. That’s a surprisingly difficult task to maintain. I’m not well versed in entrepreneurship and business management, but Nintendo is quite savvy. Time will tell if the next console will match the Switch’s success and profitability. Regardless, it will probably outsell the next PlayStation and Xbox. I’m sure the console wars will be very dramatic during the next several years. That’s the end of today’s post. What do you think about the console market’s future? Do you have any predictions? Leave a comment. I’m sure we’re going to see a lot of changes in the video game industry, both good and bad. The weather is still quite tumultuous in many areas, so be careful. Take care of yourselves and game on!
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May 2019
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